The motorcar - a modern horse-carriage

The Motorcar - a Modern Horse-carriage

You never really learn to swear until you learn to drive.

oday's motorcar has evolved from the horse-drawn carriage of old, by changing the horse for: first a steam engine, then, for a short while, an electrical engine and finally the gas-driven motor. There are a lot more horses under the hood than there used to be, but the car retains many of the fundamental characteristics of the horse-drawn carrige:

It runs on the ground.
It requires a lot of space.
It is rather dangerous (because of the human factor; the driver).
Everybody who can afford it must have one.
It carries its energy source along with it.
It pollutes the surroundings.
It has to be driven by people.
Rich folks have more than one car in the family.
It is only used a small percentage of the time.
It is expensive in purchase and maintenance.
One can argue whether the horses really "polluted their surroundings", but big cities like New York and London used to have an army of people out in the streets every morning, before motorcars became common, clearing the streets from manure.

The Motor Vehicle Explosion
Number of Motor Vehicles in the World
Global investment needs
Investments in Sweden
Different types of car engines
National economic aspects
A cabriolet

It runs on the ground. It requires a lot of space. It is rather dangerous (because of the human factor; the driver). Everybody who can afford it must have one. It carries its energy source along with it. It pollutes the surroundings. It has to be driven by people. Rich folks have more than one car in the family. It is only used a small percentage of the time. It is expensive in purchase and maintenance. One can argue whether the horses really "polluted their surroundings", but big cities like New York and London used to have an army of people out in the streets every morning, before motorcars became common, clearing the streets from manure.	The Motor Vehicle Explosion Number of Motor Vehicles in the World Global investment needs Investments in Sweden Different types of car engines National economic aspects

The Motor Vehicle Explosion

The population explosion will result in a doubling of the Earth´s population during the next 40 to 50 years (UN-statistics). But the car explosion is by far quicker! Because of the fast pace of world-wide urbanization, the population in the metropolitan areas will double in the next 30 to 40 years.

An interesting observation:
We are, by now, 6 billion people on this earth. There are more than 600 million motor vehicles in the world (see statistics further down). That comes to 10 persons per vehicle. More than 500 million of these vehicles are ordinary motor cars, that each can seat at least 5 persons. There are at least 30 million buses, which each can take 50 persons on the average. So, there is space in our motor vehicles for 4 out of these 6 billion people! The day is probably not far off when there will be enough motor vehices for all of us!

Parking area outside a motorcar factory in Japan

By reason of increased per capita car ownership, the amount of motor vehicles in the urban areas of the world will double in just 20 to 30 years (OECD-statistics). This doubling of the car park will require, in effect, the construction of as much roads and parking areas, etc. during these coming 20 - 30 years as we have today. Because of higher demands on traffic standards (such as traffic separation, heavier trucks), the cost of this doubling of traffic handling capacity will be considerably higher than hitherto. In the large metropolitan areas, where the lack of space requires the city planners to resort to building wide concrete bridges or tunnels with many lanes, the costs will increase dramatically.

When people in for instance Eastern Europe and China buy cars, they will contribute to local, regional and global environmental threats at the same per capita-level as in the Industrial Western world.

The depletion of resources; land, material and energy, will increase dramatically. About 60 % of an increasing oil consumption will in 20 years time go to keeping our motor vehicles running (Statistics from IEA). The environmental pollution of air, water and land will take catastrophic proportions.
André Gorz has written eloquently about this!

Read also the book "Asphalt Nation" by Jane Holtz Kay. It´s a book to be recommended, especially to American readers.

The Motorcar Boom in China

any among China's emerging middle class are newly minted members of the driving club — creating a whole class of people called benbenzu, or the licensed generation. Yet they remain carless, and when these novice drivers do hit the road, they tend to make the already unruly Chinese streets even more dangerous. Hence their other nickname: road killers.

Around the country, traffic accidents killed more than 104,000 people last year. That´s nearly 300 a day. The fatality rate in the United States is less than half that, even though the nation's traffic volume is far higher. Benbenzu drivers are a big part of the problem. In Shanghai, they were responsible last year for 33% of the city's traffic accidents. About the same proportion of those that resulted in death were attributed to the benbenzu.

It wasn't long ago that rush hour in China meant boulevards crammed with bicycles, and with very few four-wheelers in sight. Today, China is home to the world's fastest-growing automobile market. Motorcar sales have soared in the last few years, much thanks to falling prices and rising incomes. China last year became the world's third-largest car market, behind the U.S. and Japan. And most auto industry experts believe that it will surpass Japan and take over the No. 2 spot by year 2007. General Motors Corp. Chief Executive Rick Wagoner recently said China could become the world's largest car market within the next generation.

The growth rate is just staggering! Globally, automakers are happy to see annual sales growth in the 4% to 6% range. In China last year, it was 75%. Passenger vehicle sales have quadrupled since 1998. In 1990, the Chinese bought about 6,000 passenger cars, and most were sold to government agencies and high-ranking government and business figures.

In year 2003, Chinese consumers bought 2.1 million passenger vehicles, and about 70% of these were private purchases. The result of such torrid growth is a potentially overheating market, severe traffic congestion and worsening air quality for a country already considered one of the most polluted in the world. In the West, there is also reason to be worried that this development could further increase rising world energy prices, particurlarly oil prices. According to United Nation figures, if China's per-capita car ownership were to match that of the West, the nation would need to produce 650 million vehicles to meet demand and would consume more metal and oil than the world could supply.

Spending a fortune on Spare Parts

Carowners have to be big spenders if they are to keep their cars in good condition. In 1999, there were about 188 million motor vehicles in the EU-countries. For their upkeep, their owners spent 48 billion dollars(!) just in spare parts, in one year. 75% of these parts were bought from independent parts manufacturers, since spare parts from the original manufacturers are usually a lot more expensive.

It´s true that this industry provides jobs and incomes for a lot of people. But it is a very wasteful way to just "keep people busy". Motor vehicles are not made to last; the idea is to maintain a big turnover in ovehicles, to keep the stockholders happy! And on top of this, new models come on the market every year, for the sole purpose of making previous models obsolete.

Number of Motor Vehicles in the whole World at the end of each Year

(from U.N.'s "Statistical Yearbook" of various years, and other sources)

Year Private Vehicles in Thousands Commercial Vehicles in Thousands Total in Thousands Increase for the year in Thousands Today (2003), there are more than 750 million motor vehicles in the world. At the end of year 2004, they are expected to number more than 770 million! This table shows how their numbers are steadily increasing, with about 12 million private vehicles and 3 - 4 million commercial vehicles every year. As shown in the corresponding diagram below, the increase is linear. But at a present increase of about 3 % a year, it more than stays abreast with the population growth.
These figures are impressive: An increase of 15.48 million vehicles a year means 42 000 additional motor vehicles on the roads every day, worldwide.

...and where will the fuel come from?
World Watch Institute has estimated that in the developed countries the road traffic increase will be 10 times between years 2000 and 2050. These figures will probably be adjusted downwards in view of recent estimates, to the effect that world oil consumption will exceed the oil production from 2010. At that point petrol prices will rise rapidly, possibly in combination with rationing in some countries.
Taking Sweden as a rather typical example of a developed country, the Stockholm Region Planning Authority (RTK) has estimated, that fuel cell road cars will be available to the general public from year 2004. But it will probably take until 2030 before half the road vehicles consist of fuel cell driven cars, mostly due to the fact that:

these cars will be quite expensive, at least the first few years

conversion of existing private cars will also be expensive

country-wide service infrastructures have to be built.
Nobody has so far estimated these costs, or suggested from where the energy to produce the hydrogen gas will come, when available fossile energy, now contributing with about 85 % to world energy consumption, will no longer be sufficient. Nor does it seem like any country (with the possible exception of Brazil) is prepared to make heavy investments in massive production of solar cells, which is the only possible answer. Some countries invest in windmills, but not enough.

1981 335 102 96 977 432 079 28 319

1982 342 574 100 360 442 934 10 855

1983 351 354 104 991 456 345 13 411

1984 364 042 109 891 473 933 17 588

1985 373 667 115 165 488 832 14 899

1986 393 352 120 860 514 212 25 380

1987 395 129 124 037 519 166 4 954

1988 409 513 129 537 539 050 19 884

1989 422 240 133 831 556 071 17 021

1990 441 958 137 869 579 827 23 756

1991 445 742 139 575 585 317 5 490

1992 451 928 141 930 593 858 8 541

1993 458 489 146 501 604 990 11 132

1994 469 240 150 700 619 940 14 950

1995 480 810 154 501 635 311 15 371

1996 491 489 158 300 649 789 14 478

1997 502 209 163 700 665 909 16 120

1998 514 000 167 000 681 000 15 091

1999 524 000 171 000 695 000 14 000

2000 535 000 175 000 710 000 15 000

2001 546 000 179 000 725 000 15 000

2002 557 000 183 000 740 000 15 000

2003 568 000 188 000 756 000 16 000

2004 (proj) 580 000 192 000 772 000 16 000

Year	Private Vehicles in Thousands	Commercial Vehicles in Thousands	Total in Thousands	Increase for the year in Thousands	Today (2003), there are more than 750 million motor vehicles in the world. At the end of year 2004, they are expected to number more than 770 million! This table shows how their numbers are steadily increasing, with about 12 million private vehicles and 3 - 4 million commercial vehicles every year. As shown in the corresponding diagram below, the increase is linear. But at a present increase of about 3 % a year, it more than stays abreast with the population growth. These figures are impressive: An increase of 15.48 million vehicles a year means 42 000 additional motor vehicles on the roads every day, worldwide. ...and where will the fuel come from? World Watch Institute has estimated that in the developed countries the road traffic increase will be 10 times between years 2000 and 2050. These figures will probably be adjusted downwards in view of recent estimates, to the effect that world oil consumption will exceed the oil production from 2010. At that point petrol prices will rise rapidly, possibly in combination with rationing in some countries. Taking Sweden as a rather typical example of a developed country, the Stockholm Region Planning Authority (RTK) has estimated, that fuel cell road cars will be available to the general public from year 2004. But it will probably take until 2030 before half the road vehicles consist of fuel cell driven cars, mostly due to the fact that: these cars will be quite expensive, at least the first few years conversion of existing private cars will also be expensive country-wide service infrastructures have to be built. Nobody has so far estimated these costs, or suggested from where the energy to produce the hydrogen gas will come, when available fossile energy, now contributing with about 85 % to world energy consumption, will no longer be sufficient. Nor does it seem like any country (with the possible exception of Brazil) is prepared to make heavy investments in massive production of solar cells, which is the only possible answer. Some countries invest in windmills, but not enough.
1981	335 102	96 977	432 079	28 319
1982	342 574	100 360	442 934	10 855
1983	351 354	104 991	456 345	13 411
1984	364 042	109 891	473 933	17 588
1985	373 667	115 165	488 832	14 899
1986	393 352	120 860	514 212	25 380
1987	395 129	124 037	519 166	4 954
1988	409 513	129 537	539 050	19 884
1989	422 240	133 831	556 071	17 021
1990	441 958	137 869	579 827	23 756
1991	445 742	139 575	585 317	5 490
1992	451 928	141 930	593 858	8 541
1993	458 489	146 501	604 990	11 132
1994	469 240	150 700	619 940	14 950
1995	480 810	154 501	635 311	15 371
1996	491 489	158 300	649 789	14 478
1997	502 209	163 700	665 909	16 120
1998	514 000	167 000	681 000	15 091
1999	524 000	171 000	695 000	14 000
2000	535 000	175 000	710 000	15 000
2001	546 000	179 000	725 000	15 000
2002	557 000	183 000	740 000	15 000
2003	568 000	188 000	756 000	16 000
2004 (proj)	580 000	192 000	772 000	16 000

The daily traffic situation in Lagos, Nigeria

About 400 million of the cars in the table above are to be found in the developed part of the world. But, in 10 years time (from 1995), the amount of motorcars in the developing countries will have grown from 100 million to an astounding estimate of about 800 million! In the OECD-countries, the amount of motorcars will have grown to about 500 million during the same 10-year period. Most estimates point to roughly 1 000 million motorcars in the OECD-countries 25 years from 1995, that is to say, in the year 2020. We have used these estimates in our calculations below.

Global investment needs

The distribution of the World's motor vehicles is very uneven. In the USA there is 1 car for every 1.5 citizen, Sweden has 1 car for every 2 citizens, and places like China, India and Africa have 1 car for roughly every 700 inhabitants.

As many of the developing countries, especially China, and the countries of the former communist world, manage to increase their standard of living, these divisions in living standards will be a strong force towards the global consumption of resources. The reason is, of course, that the population in these countries will buy cars in their striving to achieve western living standards.

At the present rate, mankind will double in number in about 40 - 50 years. This corresponds to a yearly growth rate of 2 %.
There is a massive urbanization going on; people moving from the countryside to urban areas. Not so much in the industrial countries, where this trend is slowing down, but more so in the developing countries.

Now, in the year 2004, 15 cities on the earth have more than 10 million inhabitants! Most of these 15 cities are in the developing countries. The population in the urban areas is expected to double within the next 30 - 40 years, corresponding to a yearly growth of about 3 %.

On top of this, there will be a marked increase in car ownership per capita, unless something is done from the authorities to change this trend. These three effects on top of each other;
the population explosion,
the urbanization trend, and
per capita increase in car ownership,
will lead to a car explosion, by far worse than the population explosion. China alone would need about 1 billion additional motor cars, if its population is to enjoy the same travelling standard as the U.S. does today. If these prognostications hold up, the number of cars globally will double during the next 20 - 30 years!
This means that the urban areas globally will see an increase in their traffic amounting to 4 % per year. This development is, of course, hypothetical. Lack of resources, fuel above all, will break this trend.
In the urban areas one can thus foresee an investment need during the next 20 - 30 years equal to the total investment in roads to date, from the beginning of this century! This applies if we are going to maintain the same standards on our roads as today.
If, on the other hand, we want a better road standard in for instance the industrial countries, Eastern Europe and in the cities of the developing countries, in the form of more bridges and tunnels, and taking into account the spreading out of the urban areas, even heavier investments will be required.
Considering this enormous need for investments, the thought is close at hand, as to whether one should consider an alternative, more efficient transportation system.

Investments in Sweden

Sweden has a comparatively small population; it will pass 9 million inhabitants in 2004 (about 0.15 % of the world's total) spread over a large area (about 3,0 % of the earth's total land area). The urban areas are rather small, on an international scale. 70 % of all transportation of people is done by motorcars. 20 % of the houshold budget is reserved for the family car, on an average. 70 % of all transportation of people in the urban areas is done with the motorcar. These transports correspond to about 15 % of the Swedish GNP (roughly US $ 24 billion per year). Sweden alloted US $ 10 billion for road maintenance for the period 1995 - 2005. Yet, many roads in northern Sweden are now (2001) in a deplorable state, and need more money for maintenance.	Car enthusiasts imagine that families will have an electrically driven car for use in the urban traffic, and a hybrid car (which can run interchangeably on an electric battery and on regular fuel) for longer trips. Sweden will, during this same period, spend more than $ 130 billion on motorcars, and this presumes that 4 million motorcars, buses and trucks are bought, at an average cost of $ 30 000 per vehicle. The level of research into beam-carried traffic in Sweden comes to about US $ 120 000 a year (which corresponds to about 0,02 promille of investments in roads).

Different types of car engines

Man has over the years experimented with and used 4 types of car engines;

The steam engine, which was used at the beginning of the 20th century. It was fast, dependable and had a simpler construction than the combustion engine. But it was rather awkward for most people to maintain. As oil became cheap, cars with steam engines were not in demand anymore. We might see a return of this type of car, however, as oil becomes more expensive around 2015.
The otto engine is the most used car engine type today. It uses spark plugs to ignite the fuel when it is most compressed by the pistons.

The diesel engine is the second most used car engine type today. Instead of sparkplugs, it uses diesel oil which ignites spontaneously from the heat generated as it is compressed by the pistons. It is more efficient than the otto engine, and is usually used in heavier vehicles.
The electric engine is as old as the steam engine. It passed from the scene, since electrically driven cars had a short range. They depended on heavy batteries, which had to be reloaded, and which had a short life. When combustion engines and cheap gas appeared, they just went out of use.

There have recently been many attempts at producing a viable, electric motorcar, and these attempts are still going on. The challenge is to make batteries with longer life and which can store more energy in relation to their weight. Another option is to develop fuel cell technology to the point where it would be viable for use in ordinary cars.

You can read more about alternative fuels and ways to propel cars on this page.

National economic aspects

In corporations, both balance sheets and income statements are used. The balance sheet describes the long-range changes regarding assets and debts. The income statement shows short-range revenues and expenditures.

Any balance sheet for roadbuilding projects is normally not produced. Consequently, the diminishing assets resulting through use of non-renewable natural resources remain hidden. Nor is the increasing indebtedness to the environment shown in any balance sheet.
The beam-carried traffic contributes in a considerable less degree to this depletion of natural resources than today's transport systems.
In the balance sheet for road traffic projects, the social costs are not accounted for (except when it comes to traffic accidents), nor are the costs to the environment (except for a small part).
The beam-carried automatic traffic system contributes next to nothing to these costs.
When choosing between alternative projects, it is customary to make the comparison in today's values. Today's and Tomorrow's costs are weighted by means of a high interest rate (today about 6 %). This means that tomorrow's high costs of operation for the road traffic almost disappears, compared to today's investments. With this method of making comparisons, the planners everwhere choose bad projects, which entail low investment costs today, but high operational costs tomorrow. Consequently, there will in the future be no money for investments in the community chests, because they have to pay sky-high operating costs for earlier implemented, bad projects.
The result would be entirely different if one were to turn the time-perspective around, and instead were to make a comparison from tomorrow's point of view, when it's time for coming generations to pay for these investments. Then, projects with low operating costs (such as the beam-carried traffic) would win out, even if today's investments were higher, since yesterday's bad investments quickly diminish in value for coming generations. These weighted costs, to today's prices by way of a high interest rate provides a good illustration to the egotistical attitude of today's decision makers. By their shortsightedness, they amply show their disregard for the interests of future generations.

Country	1996	1998
Approximate number of persons killed in traffic accidents in the 15 "old" members of EU (they are now 25), and compared to some other countries. The first column is statistics for 1996, and are per 1 million registered cars. The second column, for the year 1998, are corresponding numbers per 1 miljon inhabitants. The countries are listed in order of accident-rate for 1996. The reason for the numbers´ being approximate is that different countries calculate in different manners. Definitions of "traffic deaths" vary in different countries; some deaths do not occur until some time after the accident, and are therefore sometimes not counted.
Portugal	743	243
Greece	656	212
Ireland	404	116
Spain	305	151
Belgium	301	147
France	278	152
Austria	256	119
Denmark	246	85
Luxemburg	239	143
Holland	221	68
Germany	202	95
Italy	202	110
Finland	183	78
United Kingdom	128	61
Sweden	135	60
Some non-EU countries	1996	1998
New Zealand	245	-
USA	208	-
Japan	174	-
Norway	125	-

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